![]() And it is the historical regular suspects – end meats and ground products. ![]() ![]() Beef demand is overall still rather good with the composite cutout value modestly below $3 but there are some clear soft spots. 90% lean was off as soon as September was over and 50% lean has been weaker for the last half of the year. Ground beef showed the most weakness through the fourth quarter. Both chuck and round primal prices had a strong showing into the fourth quarter but finished the quarter modestly. Wholesale tenderloin prices reflect the strong and better-than-last year’s demand. Loins are in the normal seasonal weakness but also priced better than last year. The demand is seasonally similar but all-in-all better than last year. Ribeye prices have been strong and increasing through the fourth quarter. The demand side will likely have important interactions with changes in supplies as cattle producers consider and eventually commit to herd building. The continued moderation into 2024 from that observed in 2023 will impact the strength of future beef protein prices. This demand spiked in 2021 and persisted through 2022. How have beef prices faired during the fourth quarter? The downstream story for the past two years has been the strength of beef demand. Producers that purchased LRP or hedged in the third quarter of this year will realize some of those excellent returns. And after mid-September, the opposite during the sharp decline. Before mid-September, there was nothing but optimism and higher – record high – prices. Regardless, 2023 is finishing up the year offering a case study of proper risk management practices and perspective. Cash prices for fed and feeder cattle did not have the same strength during the up move as futures did and are weakening but also with not the same strength as futures. But, on the positive side, the decline has slowed and is showing modest signs of the down-move weakening. Current futures prices are similar to those observed in March or April of this year – if the contract was traded. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State UniversityĬattle markets have continued their retreat to lower prices.
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